US private equity dealmakers are preparing for a year of heightened merger and acquisition (M&A) activity despite significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, according to the 2025 Deal and Business Risk Management Survey by professional service firm Aon.
The survey, which polled 100 US dealmakers — including buyers, sellers, and advisors — at Aon’s annual M&A and Transactions Solutions Symposium in January 2025, found that 90% of respondents expect M&A activity to increase in 2025.
However, this optimism is tempered by concerns over rising interest rates (55%), inflation (39%), and geopolitical conflicts and political headwinds (37%). These factors highlight the complex environment dealmakers must navigate as they balance growth opportunities with economic volatility.
Gary Blitz, CEO of M&A and Transactions Solutions at Aon, said: “With the vast majority of M&A leaders forecasting increased activity in 2025, it’s clear optimism is high in the market. Assessing risk is crucial in dealmaking, ensuring potential deals align with both immediate and future business objectives. The confidence in the market indicates a robust dealmaking landscape ahead, despite clear geopolitical headwinds.”
When evaluating potential transactions, 35% of respondents identified the quality of management teams as their top priority, underscoring the critical role leadership plays in driving long-term value. Other key factors included future exit multiples (16%) and the availability and cost of debt financing (13%). These findings reflect a growing emphasis on strong leadership and strategic alignment in private equity dealmaking.
The survey also highlighted shifting priorities in due diligence, with cybersecurity emerging as the most critical risk outside of traditional due diligence processes. A staggering 76% of respondents cited cybersecurity as a top concern, reflecting heightened awareness of the risks posed by data breaches, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Human capital and talent also ranked high on the list of due diligence priorities, with 52% of respondents emphasising the importance of skilled teams and organisational capabilities. This focus reflects the growing recognition that a company’s workforce is integral to its potential for growth and value creation.
Some 47% of respondents noted that sellers are increasingly favouring narrow or limited auction processes, involving five to 25 buyers, suggesting a trend toward more targeted and strategic dealmaking.
Another 47%, meanwhile, expect the ongoing discrepancy between buyer and seller valuation expectations to persist in 2025, driven by differing risk assessments and market conditions.
