PE Tech Report

NEWSLETTER

Like this article?

Sign up to our free newsletter

Avolon expects 43,000 new aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years

Some 43,000 new aircraft are to be delivered over the next 20 years, according to the latest World Fleet Forecast from international aircraft leasing company Avolon.

The forecast projects growth in and changes to the global commercial jet fleet and includes forecasts of aircraft deliveries, retirements, funding requirements and passenger-to-freighter conversions.
  
Dick Forsberg, Avolon’s Head of Strategy and author of the paper, says: “The growth fundamentals of the airline industry remain strong for next two decades, and we expect that the cycles for aircraft orders and deliveries will continue to move in line with the broader economic cycle.
 
“We expect 43,000 new aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, with the world jet airliner fleet doubling to 51,800 aircraft by 2036. We also anticipate that over 16,000 aircraft will retire from airline service over the period, with 40% of future deliveries supporting fleet replacement and 90% of deliveries being future technology models. This is consistent with our long held view that airlines will continue to develop their fleets by investing in the youngest and most fuel-efficient aircraft available to the market. 
 
“To fund these new deliveries, we expect that a total of USD4.3 trillion in additional financing will be required, with USD700 billion needed over the next 5 years and an average of USD170 billion annually over the next decade. In order to meet these significant needs, the roles of the various liquidity providers will continue to evolve, with operating lessors’ market share increasing from 40 per cent to 50 per cent, over time, supported by increased participation by capital markets and new investor classes.”
 

Like this article? Sign up to our free newsletter

MOST POPULAR

FURTHER READING

Featured