The outcome of the US presidential election represents a significant threat to merger and acquisition (M&A) activity over the next six months, according to a survey of over 1,600 global dealmakers by Intralinks.
Respondents from North America predict the US presidential election will have the greatest impact on M&A activity in their region over the next six months, despite the other significant economic factors in play such as the threat of further interest rate rises.
A weak global economy, China, the prospect of further US interest rate rises in 2016 and the UK’s Brexit vote all registered as significant threats with dealmakers in the rest of the world.
In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), dealmakers believe Brexit will have the most impact in the next six months; in Latin America monetary policy tops dealmakers’ concerns and in Asia Pacific economic and market events in China are considered to have the greatest potential impact.
While 56 per cent of respondents globally believe that a Trump presidency would have a negative impact on M&A activity, only 15 per cent believe that he will actually win.
Conversely, 57 per cent of respondents globally believe a Clinton presidency would have no impact on M&A activity, with 26 per cent of dealmakers stating a Clinton presidency would have a positive impact on M&A activity.
“There’s clearly an overwhelming consensus among dealmakers that Hillary Clinton will be the next US president and that Donald Trump would be bad for global M&A,” says Philip Whitchelo, vice president of strategy and product marketing at Intralinks. “However, factors other than US politics are also dominating dealmakers’ attentions, with the UK’s Brexit vote, monetary policy changes and the impact of China on the global economy being top of mind for many.”
