The Carlyle Group expects a stronger finish to 2025, forecasting an uptick in deal activity despite lower third-quarter earnings from its private equity unit that weighed on overall results, according to a report by Reuters.
CEO Harvey Schwartz said the firm remains on track to exceed full-year targets for 10% growth in fee-related earnings and $50bn in inflows, citing strength across its global credit, insurance, and AlpInvest secondaries platforms. Carlyle raised $17bn in the quarter, up from $13.4bn in Q2, bringing total assets under management to $474bn, a 2% increase.
Fee-related earnings rose slightly to $312m, ahead of analyst forecasts, but lower realisation activity dragged down distributable earnings to $368m (96 cents per share), missing expectations of $1.01. Shares fell 7% following the announcement, with Citi analysts describing the quarter as “mixed.”
CFO John Redett said Carlyle has $4bn in signed deals pending close, excluding the anticipated IPO of Medline Industries, which could value the firm at $50bn. Recent activity includes the sale of UK-based Calastone and $1bn in post-quarter transactions.
Carlyle’s AlpInvest platform reported a 22% increase in AUM in the quarter, supported by the recent $20bn fundraise targeting secondary private equity interests.
Despite the Q3 earnings miss, Carlyle’s shares remain up 4% year-to-date, outperforming larger peers Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo, all of which have recorded double-digit declines amid a challenging dealmaking environment.
