A trade in the riskiest segment of the $1.3tn credit market is attracting the most conservative investors, leading to concerns that they may be overlooking some risks in their pursuit of higher yields, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The report cites several anonymous asset managers in revealing that pension plans and insurers have been increasingly investing in funds that focus on equity tranches of collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) in recent months. This influx of capital has enabled numerous hedge funds and other money managers, including GoldenTree Asset Management, Sculptor Capital Management, Carlyle Group and CVC Credit Partners to raise at least $3.1bn in less than a year for strategies dedicated exclusively to these investments.
While the investor base has typically comprised other hedge funds, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds, the prospect of higher yields is now drawing more traditionally risk-averse capital, particularly from pension funds, though pension inflows into CLO equity are not new, with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board being involved as early as 2018.
Meanwhile, CLO equity pools, which were previously difficult to raise due to inherent risks, are growing.
Those raising CLO equity funds assert that the risks are clearly communicated. Others in the report express concern that pensions moving into these investments may be assuming too much risk for returns that have not always met expectations, which Dan Zwirn, Founder and CEO of $3.5bn New York-based institutional manager Arena Investors, echoed: “There’s this “pretend notion that because default rates are low, everything’s fine.
“But it’s not about defaults, it’s about recoveries and actual losses and that’s what people miss.”
The CLO market is reviving after two years of stagnation, with sales of new US CLOs increasing by 64% this year compared to the same period in 2023, according to Bloomberg’s data.
GoldenTree, which exceeded its goal to raise $1.3bn for investment in first-loss equity tranches of CLOs, secured support from both existing and new investors including pensions. Alternative investment platform Sagard and CLO manager Irradiant Partners have also raised CLO equity funds in the past year.
Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, points to total arbitrage having shown a premium of more than 200 basis points over the last six months, which will lead to more funds likely pursuing the strategy if its success continues.
In Europe, regulations limit how much insurers and pension funds can allocate to these higher-risk strategies, resulting in historically low direct participation, according to Dan Robinson, Head of Alternative Credit for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Deutsche Bank’s asset-management arm DWS Group.
The report also highlights pension funds’ focus not only on broader market swings but also the money managers who select the individual loans that are bundled together. Some have exceeded expectations, such as CVC’s €400m ($431m) European leveraged loan fund, which launched last year and achieved a 47% internal rate of return.
However, this does not guarantee that all funds will be able to mitigate potential losses on loan portfolios to deliver attractive CLO equity returns, with Craig Bergstrom, CIO at New York-based Corbin Capital Partners, which invests in credit funds, warning that these strategies have returned only around mid- to sometimes high, single-digit annualised returns over the last eight years across the industry amid periods of high market volatility.
Bergstrom added that the business will likely face pressure if investors are not eventually compensated for the risks.
